DRAM Memory Market Observation: DDR4 Price Decline and Storage Development Trends

2024-11-15

Recently, the global DRAM market has experienced a decline in prices across the board, with DDR4 products seeing a particularly significant drop. This article will provide a detailed analysis of the dynamics of DRAM and NAND flash memory prices, market and analyst forecasts, the development of the storage industry and investment by manufacturers, as well as the development trends of DRAM.

DRAM and NAND Flash Price Dynamics

According to the latest memory spot price trend report from TrendForce, DRAM spot market prices for DDR4 and DDR5 continue to fall across the board, with DDR4 showing a notably larger decline. The average spot price for mainstream chips (DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) dropped from $1.843 last week to $1.840 this week, a decrease of 0.16%. The decline in NAND Flash spot prices has not changed, and after spot manufacturers offloaded some low-priced inventory in the first half of the year, they also absorbed price increases due to subsequent restocking, leading to an increase in average inventory costs. A significant drop in spot prices in the second half of the year will only exacerbate manufacturers' losses, and TrendForce estimates that this trend will continue in the short term.

Market and Analyst Forecasts

Edgewater Research has downgraded its price forecasts for NAND and DRAM, believing that the NAND demand forecasts for OEMs and CSPs continue to be compressed, and data center NAND demand is expected to remain weak in 2025, with only a slight year-on-year increase. At the same time, price forecasts across all sectors have been revised downward again, including for personal computers (PCs), mobile devices, and servers, as well as NAND and DRAM.

Development of the Storage Industry and Manufacturer Investment

Amidst the current uncertain global economic situation, the consumer electronics market still

faces many challenges, with the smartphone and notebook markets showing a lackluster peak season this year. In contrast, the AI wave is coming fiercely, with a clear increase in AI storage demand, and the AI application market is expected to see a "bloom" in 2025. The storage industry is gradually moving towards refinement, focusing on core competencies such as advanced technology and high-value products, with technology precedence and leadership becoming the main theme.

Each storage manufacturer's investment and expansion focus will be on more cutting-edge technology fields, such as Samsung Electronics' plan to change the DRAM production line at its P2 factory from producing 1z DRAM to 1b DRAM or more advanced DRAM production lines. Samsung Electronics has made a significant decision in the third quarter to adjust the production capacity of the first phase of its Pyeongtaek P4 manufacturing complex, which will shift from originally focusing on NAND flash memory production to a mixed production model that supports both NAND and DRAM. In addition, SK Hynix and Micron are also actively converting or increasing production of high-profit HBM, continuing to squeeze the capacity of traditional storage chips.

DRAM Development Trend Analysis

With the iteration and upgrade of DRAM, high performance and low power consumption have become the two main development trends. Taking the DDR series as an example, DDR has already evolved to the 5th generation, and each generation has a lower operating voltage than the previous one. This means that as DDR memory technology develops, its power consumption and heat generation will gradually decrease, reflecting the development trend of low power consumption in DRAM. At the same time, the maximum chip capacity and minimum transfer speed from the first to the fifth generation of DDR have both achieved double growth, with the expansion of chip capacity and the increase in transfer rate reflecting the development trend of high performance in DRAM.

However, DDR4 memory is gradually fading from the production focus of storage giants. SK Hynix plans to gradually reduce the production proportion of DDR4 and shift limited capacity to artificial intelligence storage and advanced DRAM products. Samsung also plans to reduce DDR4 production capacity and instead allocate resources to more promising memory products such as DDR5 and LPDDR5. DDR5 memory technology continues to advance, with frequencies reaching a new high of about 12264MT/s, and it is expected to break through the 11000MHz limit in the future.

Conclusion

The decline in DRAM prices across the board, especially the significant drop in DDR4, reflects the impact of market supply and demand changes and technological iteration. As storage manufacturers shift their focus to higher-end product lines, DDR4 may gradually exit the market, and DDR5 and more advanced storage technologies will become the mainstream of the future. At the same time, the NAND flash memory market also faces compressed demand forecasts and falling prices. These changes have a significant impact on the future development of the storage industry, and manufacturers need to flexibly adjust their production strategies to cope with rapid market changes.

Semicon Storage Components Solution, Find in Semicone

Semicon is a prominent global distributor of semiconductor components, specializing in sourcing a wide range of active and passive components for customers in various industries, primarily aerospace, automotive, medical, industrial control and consumer electronics. Here are a few high-quality chips selected by Semicone.

The Sharp Microelectronics LHF00L12 is a 32Mbit parallel flash memory chip. It features a 48-TFSOP, operating at a speed of 90ns and a voltage range of 2.7V to 3.6V. This IC is designed for applications requiring fast data access and is suitable for a wide range of electronic devices operating within a temperature range of -40°C to 85°C.

The Micron MT48H8M32LFB5-8 is a 256Mb Mobile SDRAM chip, internally configured with a quad-bank DRAM and a synchronous interface. It features a fully synchronous operation with all signals registered on the positive edge of the system clock, and operates within a voltage range of 1.70–1.95V.

The Analog Devices Inc. MXD1210CWE is a nonvolatile RAM controller, it operates within a supply voltage range of 4.75V to 5.5V and has a quiescent current of 230µA in operating mode. The MXD1210CWE includes features such as battery backup, memory write protection, and power-fail detection options, ensuring data integrity during power fluctuations.

Email: info@semicone.com

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